Research · Paper · Full text coming soon
Internalizing Fragility in Triple Bottom Line Supply Chains
A system dynamics approach to quantifying non-linear risk in triple bottom line supply chains. The companion paper to the workshop game The Anti-Fragile Nexus.
Core thesis
Most operational risk methods treat disruption as exogenous, focusing on events outside the firm. This paper argues that fragility is also endogenous: organizations can accumulate a measurable stock of risk through repeated short-term optimization.
- Defines fragility as a buildable stock, not just an external probability.
- Shows how People and Planet buffers function as protective capacity in Triple Bottom Line systems.
- Explains how cost or efficiency decisions can silently create non-linear downside through delayed systemic effects.
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